Sequential
Decision Making in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Investigators:
Eugene Laska, PhD, Morris Meisner, PhD, Carole Siegel, PhD and Aaron Stinnett,
PhD
Goals
For
resource allocation under a constrained budget, optimal decision rules have
been given for independent, mutually exclusive, and independent clusters
of mutually exclusive programs. Each program has associated with it a cost
and effectiveness. We treat an arbitrary complex structure that describes
hierarchical interrelationships among mutually exclusive and independent programs.
The unifying concept is that of a compound program. An algorithm to obtain
the optimal allocation rule is presented. Compound programs may be funded
based on the total budget, or on willingness to pay criteria for average CERs
or incremental CERs of the optimal compound program. This decision rule maximizes
the total effectiveness achievable for any given budget. Alternative methods
of solution, involving net health benefits and linear programming are presented.
For example, this method can be used to chose an optimal mental health benefit
package among alternatives offered by a health insurance plan.
Computer Programs
A procedure
for obtaining an optimal resource allocation for complex structures has been
programmed in Mathematica (version 3.0). The details are available in a manuscript
with the above title, which has been submitted for publication.
To download
version 1.1 of this program within a Mathematica notebook click below.
NOTE:
The prior version of this program (1.0) contained some serious errors
and should not be used. The corrected version (1.1) has been available from
this page since July 21, 1998. If you downloaded either file prior to this date,
please make sure to download the new version.
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